Political changes, tax issue may hurt program

You could compare Milwaukee's private school choice program to the Titanic.

As recently as last fall, it seemed politically unsinkable. Its influential supporters included then-Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, Mayor John O. Norquist and state Rep. Antonio Riley (D-Milwaukee). Even the president-elect, George W. Bush, was promoting similar programs as a solution to education problems nationwide.

Then Thompson took a job in Washington, Norquist said he had had an affair with an aide and, last week, Riley was booted from the Legislature's powerful Joint Finance Committee. Even Bush has slowed down his drive to send federal money to private schools.

Milwaukee's program may not have hit an iceberg yet, but supporters and detractors alike are on the lookout. Choice faces its biggest test, they say, since the landmark 1998 court ruling that expanded the program to include religious schools.

"We have to build a base that can transcend any individual leader," said George Mitchell, a Milwaukee consultant who is instrumental in setting choice supporters' strategy. "We can't see Antonio being off Finance as a blow, or Tommy going to Washington, because ultimately we're all gone."

The leadership changes are not the only factor in a rising tide of attacks on the choice program. Frustration has been building around the state for the past two years, ever since state lawmakers changed how they pay for the program. But shifts in the state's power structure created a bigger opening for choice opponents, the program's supporters say.

"I think some of these people now smell blood because they think that without the mayor, without the governor, this is the time to move in," said Howard Fuller, the former Milwaukee Public Schools superintendent who is a leading advocate of choice.

"But I have a very clear warning to all of these people: If you think that the battle with the people in those positions was rough, just wait until it comes from the bottom. Anybody who thinks we're just going to roll over, they're crazy."

Michael Butera, executive director of the Wisconsin Education Association Council, acknowledged that political changes would give the state's largest teachers union more room to make the case against vouchers. But he said the program was in trouble anyway.

Consider his take on Thompson's departure and replacement as governor by Scott McCallum, who supports school choice but doesn't have his predecessor's legendary clout.

"Tommy after 14 years had extensive fingers in the pie," Butera said. "But the public's attitude has been shifting over the last two years. It would have come back to haunt him as well."

Butera said he thinks the choice program's time "is fast coming to an end."

Others aren't pronouncing a death sentence so quickly.

State Rep. Spencer Black (D-Madison), who replaced choice backer Shirley Krug of Milwaukee as Assembly minority leader in the shake- up that took Riley off the Joint Finance Committee, said it was premature to call the choice program politically troubled.

Norquist said he remains active in promoting choice and added: "Ultimately, I don't think that choice will be dismantled. If it was, it would be a very pyrrhic victory. It would create a dynamic that would really hurt the children of Milwaukee."

Butera, though, said the opposition is strong.

"The public has just realized that everybody is paying for this out of their tax dollars," he said.

In fact, the program's impact on taxpayers outside Milwaukee has been a matter of much dispute. A study by the non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau found that the 425 districts outside Milwaukee together gain $5.8 million from the choice program, although more than half the districts have individual losses.

Choice advocates said that despite the changing landscape, they are not without friends in high places.

People across the spectrum say Norquist remains a strong supporter of school choice. But there are widespread perceptions that the fallout from his involvement with Marilyn Figueroa left him politically distracted and less able to promote his ideas on issues such as choice.

In Washington, Bush is barely beginning his presidency. He said last week that he still supports vouchers, even though he doesn't expect them to appear in a major education bill moving through Congress right now.

"It is better to have a president who at least believes in it than to have someone like Al Gore who would have spent every waking hour condemning it," Fuller said.

Riley said he can promote choice without a Joint Finance seat. But he suggested that grass-roots opinion will drive the debate.

"I think that this program . . . is more important than just personalities or one individual person," Riley said. "It's about educational options for parents and for kids, and I think that movement has taken on a life of its own."

Mitchell and Fuller cited a litany of gains for choice: expanded programs in Florida, studies showing choice's benefits, and the Milwaukee program's growth to include religious schools and roughly 10,000 children, up from 1,500 three years ago.

"If I was in the opposition's shoes, my challenge now is how to quietly pull the rug out from under 10,000 families," Mitchell said. "They have a much different challenge now that there is a human face associated with what they want to undo."

By that measure, Butera responded, public schools have an even bigger base of support.

"The overwhelming majority of citizens of this state and, in fact, this nation, send their children to public schools," he said. "We're talking about a very small minority of voters. They have a right to exercise their democratic options, and so do the rest of us."

Dennis Chaptman of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.

WHY?

Reasons for the changed climate for school choice:

-- Political shifts involving Tommy G. Thompson, John O. Norquist, Antonio Riley and George W. Bush.

-- Questions about how the program affects taxpayers outside Milwaukee.