Miami-Dade Schools Superintendent Merrett Stierheim said Monday that an unexpected drop in projected student enrollment during the first two weeks of school would cost the district $12 million in state per-pupil funding -- adding to the fiscal woes already plaguing the district.
If the downward trend continues -- an official district-wide count will be taken next month -- it would be the first time since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 that the nation's fourth-largest school district has fewer students than the previous year.

The district registered 4,000 more students on opening day this year than last. But last Friday, 10 days into the school year, a district-wide head count yielded 361,522 students -- 375 fewer than a year ago. "It was really eerie," said Chief Financial Officer Richard Hinds. "Four thousand kids evaporated."

District officials, who rely on sophisticated computer models to predict future enrollments, are puzzled by the sudden drop-off.

It is also the second time in two years that the district's $2.5 billion operating budget has been jarred by enrollment fluctuations. Last year the district overestimated its growth by more than 3,000 students.

Stierheim attributed most of this year's enrollment drop to a new state program called "Florida Child Scholarships," which gives corporations tax credits in return for funding private-school tuitions for low-income students.

But Stierheim couldn't explain why the drop-off came after the school year started.

The bad news comes three days before the School Board votes on the 2002-03 budget.

Stierheim, who has repeatedly warned that the district is in a financial crisis, will ask the board on Thursday to set aside $11 million, including $3 million from its emergency fund, to handle the funding shortfall from the enrollment drop.

HARDEST HIT

After predicting an enrollment growth of 5,500 students this school year, the district now says its peak enrollment will reach 366,200 students -- 700 fewer than last year.

District officials said elementary students are primarily being targeted by the corporate scholarships, and the majority of elementary schools are down students.

The district instituted a hiring freeze on teachers Friday until the enrollment decrease stabilizes. But the district says it was conservative about hiring teachers to handle projected growth and won't need to resort to layoffs.

Stierheim also said he is considering consolidating students from under-enrolled elementaries into neighboring schools and temporarily closing some schools. But with severe overcrowding at most district schools, such a proposal seems unlikely.

The Florida Child Scholarships went into effect in January, and 1,000 students statewide took advantage of them in the second semester of last school year, said Patrick Heffernan, president of the Miami-based Floridians for School Choice, which helps administer the program.

This year, an estimated 10,000 students across Florida -- including 3,000 in Miami-Dade -- will use the scholarships to transfer to private schools, including religious ones, making it the largest statewide school-choice program in the nation, Heffernan said.

Those numbers dwarf the several hundred voucher students who left failing public schools through the controversial "Opportunity Scholarships," which are currently being challenged in court. They also exceed the popular McKay voucher program given to disabled students.

The enormous first-year popularity of the Florida Child Scholarships could slow statewide growth in enrollment, said Carolyn DuBard, a statistician tracking enrollment for the Florida Legislature.

To qualify for the $3,500 corporate scholarships, students must be eligible for free or reduced-price lunches and have attended a public school if they are in grades two through 12.

Students can use the money at any private school, unlike the tuition voucher program that is limited to a small number of participating schools.

If a private school's tuition exceeds $3,500, students can pay the rest out-of-pocket or ask the school for an additional scholarship.

ACADEMY'S ROLE

Some schools like Gulliver Academy, a prestigious Pinecrest prep school, have agreed to take a few students who were awarded the scholarships, Heffernan said.

Students can also use scholarships to pay for transportation to a public school in another district.

Students must apply for the corporate scholarships through private organizations that manage the program -- not the state. Floridians for School Choice is the largest of five nonprofit scholarship organizations in the state.

Corporate contributions -- already totaling about $20 million -- are distributed to qualifying students from low-income families. A family of four, for instance, must earn below $33,485 a year to qualify. In return, the companies receive dollar-for-dollar state tax credits.

Miami-Dade officials criticized the Florida Child Scholarships as a "stealth voucher program" that siphons away education dollars.

"This has very serious implications on public schools," Stierheim said. "How do we plan? How do we budget?"

But state education officials said the enrollment drop should help the overcrowded district.

THE UP SIDE

"We're not going to bankrupt public education in Florida with this scholarship program," said Bill Edmonds, spokesman for the Florida Board of Education. "Especially in districts like Miami-Dade with a history of tremendous growth, this is a way to take a bit of the pressure off."

Heffernan said there's a difference between this program and state vouchers.

"These aren't public dollars," he said. "There's no difference than a kid getting help from a rich uncle."

Heffernan said that similar corporate scholarship programs are in place in Arizona and Illinois.

The majority of schools accepting scholarships are religiously affiliated schools with limited academic and athletic programs, Heffernan said.

In Miami-Dade, he said, St. Francis Xavier School in Overtown accepted 50 students, Corpus Christi took on 67 and Northwest Christian Academy had 64.

DOLLARS SAVED

Heffernan said the scholarship program saves public dollars because most school districts spend more than $3,500 in tax dollars per student. In Miami-Dade, for example, each first-grader is allocated at least $3,748 in state funding.

"This is a new way to look at education," Heffernan said.